The drought monitor, as of Tuesday, March 31, indicates a continued increase in drought conditions with 19% of the state now out of dry conditions. Almost our entire area is now in moderate drought. Rains from Wednesday aren’t included in this report. The six- to 10-day forecast (April 7-11) indicates a 40-50% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a 50-60% chance of likely above normal for precipitation. The eight- to 14-day forecast (April 9 to 15) indicates a 40-50% chance of leaning above normal for temperatures and a 40-50% chance of leaning above normal for precipitation.
It’s now the first week of April. Dryland corn should be going in the ground within the next couple of weeks, weather permitting, followed by irrigated corn. Mid-May comes the start of grain sorghum followed shortly by soybeans. Every year is challenging when preparing for summer row crops but this year even more so. With everything going on, today, let’s look at some of choices producers are potentially considering.
• Especially for dryland corn producers, soil moisture and the long-term weather outlook produce a major challenge. Grain sorghum and soybean planting have a bit more time. If you dig around much of our area, the topsoil is dry. Yet, if you go down about five to eight inches, many spots have decent subsoil moisture. The eight- to 14-day outlook from NOAA is leaning above normal for precipitation and temper atures. Not a super strong outlook for excessive temperatures. This may provide adequate moisture for germination and seedling establishment. The long-term outlook appears headed for a moderate to strong El Nino building. So, do you plant dryland corn or wait and see? Do you back off the population a bit? Do you plant as early as possible and hope to get seed set before any extreme hot and dry weather? Do you wait and switch to grain sorghum?
• The second major factor is the cost of inputs and the value of corn, grain sorghum and soybeans. Fuel and fertilizer prices are up, especially nitrogen. Anhydrous, urea, and UAN solution nitrogen prices are significantly higher and projected to increase more. Urea is over $800 per ton which means almost 90 cents for a pound of nitrogen. Anhydrous Ammonia is almost $900 per ton or about 55 cents per pound of N. Twenty-eight percent UAN is similarly high. Does that affect what a producer can afford to put on as N or even the plant population? Should a producer switch to something needing less N. Finally, cash prices for grains and soybeans have improved a bit, but still low when looking at input costs. What planting decisions can a producer make to help stay above water and hopefully make a profit. And throw in the increased interest rate costs for an operating loan.
Dr. Victor L. Martin is the agriculture instructor/coordinator for Barton Community College. He can be reached at 620-792-9207, ext. 207, or martinv@bartonccc.edu.
